'Penal Populism' Is A Hit With The Voters, Polly

An astounding change is happening to life in England and Wales that most people don’t know about, and when they are told they don’t believe it. Most crime, including violence, has fallen by a remarkable 90% over the past 30 years. But only 6% of people believe it, while 61% think crime is going up.

This great denial is the background cause of the prison overflow crisis, as politicians (of all parties) stir up voters to demand ever higher sentences as the imaginary cure to their imaginary soaring crime.

All western European countries enjoy this same remarkable social improvement, with research over decades offering myriad reasons why: populations spending longer in education, CCTV, better security for cars and homes, and young people staying at home to play video games of fantasy crime instead of entertaining themselves with the real thing. Removing brain-harming lead from petrol and abortion of unwanted foetuses at risk of future child neglect are other possible explanations.

This generation inhabits a far less violent society, with many fewer homicides, thefts, burglaries and serious violent crimes, but also far less casual social violence in brawls and punch-ups. Older folk nostalgic for an orderly golden age when no one bothered locking their front door usually situate it just beyond their own memories, in their grandparents’ halcyon days. But radical social change leads to less acceptance of any violence. Online fraud and cybercrime are the ones that are steeply rising, though they are committed by quite different criminals.

Single landmark horror cases – from the Moors murderers to Fred West and Axel Rudakubana – are seared for ever into the nation’s collective nightmares. Too often these freak incidents drive our sentencing policy.

It’s happening again in the case of two of those responsible for the heartrending death of PC Andrew Harper. Harper’s family, and every chief constable in England and Wales, protested vigorously that they were due to be released under new rules after serving only half of their 13-year manslaughter sentences.

But anything singling out these men will be challenged in court. Blocking early release for all those imprisoned for manslaughter would fill too many cells: besides, that’s rough justice when some have sentences of one year, others for 24 years or life.

The law is set by parliament for independent courts to apply, regardless of politics: look at Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump or Viktor Orbán for examples of those who break that democratic principle. We should be uneasy at our government declaring publicly that it is chasing after a way to bend laws to lock up two particular offenders.